At first, China’s hard-line leadership insisted the couple confess to criminal charges and surrender to security forces. Instead, Fang and Li merely admitted the obvious: their views violate the Chinese Constitution. And they promised the inevitable: they would not “oppose” China (the wording did not specify the Beijing regime). In order to mask the obvious concession to the West, Fang’s irregular heartbeat was “blown way out of proportion,” said a friend.
That strategy ended seven months of tense negotiations. Richard Nixon first pressed for Fang’s release last fall. High-level talks began in December. On May 24, Bush said he’d support China’s most-favorednation (MFN) trading status. “There was no deal,” insists a leading Chinese expert in the State Department, but clearly, Bush expected something. The gamble worked. In late June Beijing softened its stand. “They are starting to get around to the big names, the people who influence opinion,” said a Western diplomat in Beijing. On June 18 pop singer Hou Dejian was sent back to his native Taiwan instead of being jailed for antigovernment activities. Then Fang and Li left. Dissident writer Wang Ruowang is also rumored to be on the verge of release.
So far, the shift hardly amounts to a sea change in party politics. Prime Minister Li Peng says it shows “growing stability in China.” To a limited extent, he may be right. Deng Xiaoping backed Fang’s release last January, but Romania’s revolution so spooked Beijing officials that they scotched negotiations. A more cynical view suggests that the hard-liners had to soften to survive. “The leadership knows how unhappy and cynical the people have become,” said a former professor in Beijing. “They need to show us a better face to ease the tension.”
History will probably show that it was money–not morals or morale–that was the real key. Foreign aid dried up last June. The World Bank limits loans to “humanitarian” projects; the Japanese put a crucial $5.6 billion loan package on hold; foreign investment is declining. The economy is reeling, too, from a government-enforced austerity program. “The Chinese need to get [it] back on track,” said an Asian diplomat in Beijing. “How? Cuddle up with the West.” By moving now, the government can curry favor with the Group of Seven before next week’s economic summit in Houston.
In a sense, Beijing was cornered. When the West first turned its back, China looked toward Eastern Europe, then watched it collapse. With Moscow smoothing relations with Washington, the Soviet card lost its value. That left the West. Fang’s release topped Bush’s wish list. Now the harder task of rebuilding fractured relations remains. Fang, meanwhile, just hopes to “rest and recuperate” and await a reunion with his son Fang Zhe, a student at Beijing University.
