If the November elections for U.S. Congress were held today, more registered voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate (47 percent) than the Republican candidate (40 percent) in their district. Thirteen percent say the would vote for another party’s candidate or are undecided. That’s a turnabout from the NEWSWEEK poll taken just after President George W. Bush’s Sept. 12 speech on Iraq to the United Nations, when 43 percent said they would vote for the GOP candidate, vs. 41 percent for he Democrat.
Democrats need to pick up just six seats in the House of Representatives to gain control. In the Senate, Democrats already have a one-seat majority, and Republicans have more seats to defend.
Still, the majority of registered voters also says they have not yet followed news coverage about the candidates or campaigns too closely (30 percent) or at all (29 percent). Just 12 percent say they have been very closely following coverage of the candidates in the upcoming election.
The majority of registered voters polled say their view of Bush is very (30 percent) or somewhat (28 percent) important in determining their Congressional this year. Bush still holds a strong 65 percent approval rating, though that is down five points from the Sept. 12 poll and is 23 points lower than last October, when Bush’s popularity peaked at 88 percent.
Overall, Americans say the economy is the top issue in deciding who they will vote for in the Congressional races this year (41 percent), while one third (34 percent) cite the issue of war with Iraq, and 17 percent say local issues are most important to them. However, among registered Republicans alone, war against Iraq ranks as the top issue, with 39 percent.
If the Presidential election were being held today, instead of in 2004, and registered voters had a choice of Bush or former Vice President Al Gore, 58 percent would re-elect President Bush, while 36 percent say they would vote for Gore; six percent say they are undecided or would vote for someone else. Even among Democrats, nearly a quarter (23 percent) would pick Bush.
Among both parties, most of those polled (55 percent) do not think that Bush and others within his administration are deliberately using talk of war with Iraq to distract voters’ attention from other issues in the upcoming Congressional elections, 37 percent believe they are. And two-thirds of those polled feel it is patriotic to raise questions about a possible military campaign against Iraq (just 15 percent say it is unpatriotic). Still, almost as many (63 percent) say they support the use of military force against Iraq, (down slightly from 67 percent earlier this month).
Sending in commandos or members of the Special Forces to capture Saddam or work with local opponents of his regime remains the most popular method of attack among respondents, with 72 percent saying they would support such a move. Sixty-nine percent say they would support the use of an international force to remove Saddam from power and take control of the country. Sixty-seven percent would support the use of air strikes against Iraq without any troops on the ground, while just half of those polled would also support sending in large numbers of U.S. ground troops to ensure control of the country.
Still, most Americans think that it is important that President Bush get approval from Congress and support from the United Nations as well as U.S. allies before taking any military action against Iraq. Two-thirds say it is very important, and 21 percent say it is somewhat important, to get Congressional approval. Fifty-nine percent say it is very important to get formal support from the United Nations, and a quarter of those polled say it is somewhat important. Eight-six percent say it very (58 percent) or somewhat (28 percent) to get support from most European allies, and 82 percent say it is very (52 percent) or somewhat (30 percent) important to get support from most U.S.-friendly Arab countries as well.
Forty-nine percent of those polled say the Bush administration has a well-thought-out plan for using military force against Iraq, though 35 percent say it does not (16 percent aren’t sure). And just under half (48 percent) say it would be better to delay military action to try and garner more support from allies-even if it gives Saddam more time to prepare for an attack and develop weapons of mass destruction. Forty-one percent say it is important to take action in the next month or so, even if many U.S. allies oppose it.
Thirty-seven percent of Americans say capturing or killing Osama bin Laden and other top Al Qaeda leaders would do more to reduce the threat of terrorism than removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq. About a quarter of those polled (24 percent) say deposing Saddam would be more effective, while the same amount say both measures would be equally effective in reducing the threat of terrorism.
Two-thirds of those polled do agree with Bush’s contention that Saddam’s regime in Iraq poses an imminent threat to U.S. interests; 27 percent say it does not. Three-quarters of those polled say they believe Saddam’s regime is harboring Al Qaeda terrorists, or at least helping them to develop chemical weapons; just 12 percent say they don’t think so, and 13 percent don’t know.
For the NEWSWEEK Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed by telephone 1,011 adults aged 18 and older on Sept. 26 and Sept. 27. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
