Senator Tim Kaine is widely expected to address his political future in remarks in Richmond, Virginia, on Friday following reports that he hadn’t yet decided whether to seek another term.
If Kaine decides to bow out, the race to replace him is expected to be highly competitive and his seat will be a key target for Republicans in 2024 following the state’s election of Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin in 2021.
In Arizona, Senator Kyrsten Sinema has left the Democratic Party and speculation has been rife that Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake could challenge her in 2024.
While Lake is still challenging the results of the Arizona governor’s race, a Blueprint Polling survey published on January 11 showed her winning 36 percent support in a hypothetical matchup against Sinema and Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego.
Gallego, who is planning to announce a campaign against Sinema, garnered 32 percent in the survey, while Sinema had 14 percent support.
In another potentially troubling development for Democrats, West Virginia’s Republican Governor Jim Justice told Fox News on Monday that he’s “very interested” in a 2024 Senate bid.
That would see him challenge Democratic Senator Joe Manchin, who has been described as a moderate or conservative and who has been a very powerful figure in the Senate due in part to the fact that the chamber was previously divided 50-50 between the parties.
With margins in the Senate extremely close, competitive races in Arizona, Virginia and West Virginia could prove crucial to control of the chamber.
Dooming the Democrats?
Political experts who spoke to Newsweek on Friday suggested that things may not look good for the Democrats’ Senate chances right now, but 2024 is still some way off.
“In theory, and in normal times, the electoral map looks to doom the Democrats to losing the Senate in 2024,” Robert Singh, a professor at the Department of Politics at Birkbeck, University of London, told Newsweek.
“Not only are they more exposed, with more Democratic incumbents’ seats up for election than Republicans’, but some of these - Arizona, West Virginia, Virginia - are in states where Republicans are very competitive,” Singh said.
“Having managed to repel a Republican charge in 2022, pulling off another such feat in two years time would be a real challenge,” he said.
Too Early to Panic
With midterm elections just over and the new Congress now in session, it may be too early to write off the Democrats’ chances. Lake and Justice have not formally announced Senate bids and it isn’t yet clear how the race in Virginia will shape up.
“Democrats’ margin of error for keeping control of the Senate is razor-thin. So of course there’s concern when stalwarts like Joe Manchin or Tim Kaine face legitimate challengers or decide not to run,” Thomas Gift, founding director of University College London’s Centre on U.S. Politics, told Newsweek.
“Nonetheless, with more than two years out until the next election, and with the presidential candidates for both parties still undecided, it’s too early for Democrats to panic,” he said.
Gift said that Republicans “have proven eminently capable of shooting themselves in the foot before, so writing off incumbent seats is premature even if Democrats face an increasingly tough task ahead.”
The Looming Presidential Race
While campaigns for the Senate - and the House of Representatives - are of major importance, 2024 will be dominated by the race for the White House. That contest is likely to influence down ballot races.
Former President Donald Trump has already announced another presidential campaign and if he is the Republican nominee, he’ll have a major impact on Senate races.
Singh told Newsweek that because Senate elections are statewide they’re “invariably more competitive than House elections, attracting well-respected and experienced candidates.”
He said that Republicans “have a notorious problem in this regard, often selecting inexperienced, extremist, or just plain odd characters as Senate nominees.”
Singh added that “the presidential race in 2024 will loom heavily over the down ballot contests, especially if Trump is the nominee for the GOP but even if it is someone else.
“That is a potent combination for the Republicans to, once again, shoot themselves in the foot as they did last year,” he said. “It is not inconceivable that the party makes fewer gains than the electoral arithmetic on its own suggests is possible.”
“And that is even without another ‘black swan’ event such as war, recession, or pandemic,” Singh warned.
