A survey of 638 likely statewide voters conducted by Oklahoma-based political consulting firm Ascend Action shows Hofmeister leading Stitt, 49 percent to 42 percent, with 8 percent of voters undecided.

Hudson Talley, a partner with Ascend, told KOKH in Oklahoma City that he’s most surprised by Hofmeister’s gains in rural areas that typically vote Republican.

“For the first time in the entirety of this race, I’m actually seeing Stitt down in the west half of the state, and a little bit more competitive than he’s been in the east half of the state,” Talley said.

Hofmeister, a former Republican who switched parties to challenge Stitt, is garnering 20 percent of GOP support as opposed to 69 percent for Stitt. She has 89 percent of Democratic support while Stitt has just 4 percent.

Independents are heavily favoring Hofmeister, too, by a margin of 69 percent to 22 percent.

“I’m starting to see that crossover of moderate Republicans surge just a little bit [in Hofmeister’s favor],” Talley said. “And the lack of Republican position among independents is causing this lead to widen a little bit.”

The Hofmeister campaign is running on a “world-class schools” platform. The campaign said Stitt’s “voucher scheme will defund rural schools and dismantle public education across the state.”

Stitt’s campaign website says that Oklahoma’s school rankings have been “consistently low for decades,” blaming Hofmeister and Democratic leadership.

His campaign pledges to hold schools accountable for their spending and ensure “that transparency is maintained.”

Oklahoma Watch reported that Stitt, who is against forced consolidation, has said that if school vouchers are implemented statewide, private schools would expand into rural areas where they current don’t exist.

Questions remain about whether such a move would lead to lower academic quality.

Brigette Zorn, a spokesperson for the Hofmeister campaign, told Newsweek that “rural communities feel particularly targeted by Stitt’s voucher scheme.”

“The debate over school choice is splintering the Republican Party in Oklahoma, and we see an urban vs. rural divide within the ‘R’ party on this issue,” Zorn said.

In February, Republican Oklahoma House Speaker Charles McCall said the Oklahoma Empowerment Act—a school choice bill that would pay for students to attend private schools or be homeschooled—wouldn’t get a hearing in his chamber.

“The obvious question for a person that lives in Atoka, Oklahoma, population 3,000 people, 12,000 in the county, [is] what does a kid with a voucher do?” McCall said, according to The Oklahoman. “What do they do with that? The population is so sparse that are there going to be options that really pop up? So, yeah, that definitely would be the rural concern for the members I serve with, including myself.”

Hofmeister, the state superintendent, leads Stitt in terms of voter favorability. Her approval number is 55 percent, while her disapproval is 45 percent. Stitt is viewed favorably by 45 percent of voters but unfavorably by 53 percent. Both exceed President Joe Biden’s favorability of 38 percent.

Along with an advantage in likely voters ages 18 to 54, Hofmeister holds a slight lead in the 65-74 age group, which previously favored Stitt by a “healthy” margin.

Men favor Stitt, 49 percent to 43 percent, while women favor Hofmeister by a bigger margin, 54 percent to 36 percent.

In May, Stitt signed legislation making the performing of abortions a felony and punishable by up to 10 years in prison and $100,000 fines. Hofmeister, who said she is “pro-life,” has called Stitt’s approach “radical” and “believes it is a health care decision between a woman and her doctor.”

FiveThirtyEight still gives Stitt a one-point advantage over Hofmeister, 44.9 percent to 43.9 percent. But ever since pollster American Viewpoint showed Stitt with a 15-point advantage on September 28, Hofmeister has held leads of four, seven and one point in various statewide polls throughout October.

“It’s clear Oklahomans are ready for change,” Hofmeister told Newsweek in a statement. “Over the next few weeks, we’ll keep talking with voters about issues that impact their families, like eliminating the grocery tax, standing against Stitt’s school voucher scheme, opportunities for better jobs, and increased accountability so our tax dollars aren’t squandered through self-dealing and corruption.

“I’m on Team Oklahoma while Kevin Stitt reads from a national script and works only for himself.”

Hofmeister’s campaign might be operating at its ceiling, Talley said, citing lowered Republican “intensity” at this point. It might make the polling gap seem wider than it is, coupled with $10 million of negative TV ads against Stitt. He predicts a final push by Stitt’s campaign in a race that still might be his to lose.

“I know there’s a lot of money that’s probably going to be hitting TV to hit Joy Hofmeister on her records, on some of her more extreme positions,” Talley said. “And I do expect that to change, that 20 percent of Republicans we’re seeing in our poll [will] be more comfortable shifting. And that’s going to close that gap. By how much? I’m not sure.”

Newsweek reached out to the Stitt campaign for comment.