In the middle of the presidential speech opening Parliament, live on nationwide television, Mubarak suddenly complained about the air conditioning and the temperature. Then he grabbed the sides of the lectern in a white-knuckled clinch. “What is happening?” he asked. The television cameras turned to other subjects–a long shot of the chamber, a close-up of the Egyptian seal–as the president fainted. Four guards carried him out of the hall, with Gamal close behind.
For 50 long minutes, traffic stopped in many parts of Cairo. Helicopters circled overhead. Inside the Parliament, the grand imam of Al Azhar started to recite prayers for the president’s health. One of the members called for a recitation of Qur’anic verses used as last rites. The minister of Housing broke down in tears. If Mubarak dies, who could or would replace him?
The question is critical to the stability of the Middle East and, not least, Egypt’s cold but reliable peace with Israel. But nobody’s sure of the answer. Mubarak, who was vice president in 1981 when Anwar Sadat was assassinated, has never named a vice president of his own. Constitutionally, the next in line is the ineffectual chairman of Parliament. But most speculation centers on Gamal, the son who’s obviously rising.
In the past few years, Mubarak’s aides have carefully cultivated the image of Gamal, 40, as a talented technocrat with close ties to the business community. He’s presented as a reformer who could, at once, ensure continuity while bringing much-needed change. Having joined the ruling National Democratic Party in 2000, after a stint working at the Bank of America in London, he was promoted last year to a powerful policy-making committee in the party. But officially, Gamal’s not in line. President Mubarak told NEWSWEEK unequivocally in 2001, “My son is not going to be the next president.”
In fact, whatever President Mubarak’s wishes are today, Egypt’s institutions are strong enough to resist Gamal’s rise–and probably will–if the president dies. The Parliament might put forward some new names. The military might have its own candidate: say, intelligence chief Omar Suleiman. If Mubarak really does want his son to take his position, he’ll have to arrange a new election himself.
Returning to the podium after more than an hour of doubts and fears last week, Mubarak blamed lack of sleep, while his aides said the problem was the flu. He finished his speech. But the most important unfinished business–the succession–remains.
