Imagine what her critics are saying. Since taking charge of the world’s fourth largest nation 15 months ago, Megawati has confounded many with her aloof leadership. She seems more concerned with restoring the legacy of her disgraced father, founding president Sukarno, than creating one of her own. And it’s not clear which, if any, of her advisers has her ear. During the past year she has ignored advice from her economic team on how to rescue the spiraling economy. She has gone back and forth on information from her own intelligence agency on Al Qaeda’s ties to local groups. And, most recently, alarms sounded by foreign governments that Indonesia had terrorists in its midst went unheeded. “[Former dictator] Suharto left us two big problems to deal with–one is corruption, and the other is midgets for leaders,” says Jusuf Wanandi, chairman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta. “Megawati is weak so she does not dare [do anything].”
After the Bali bombing, the chorus of voices ringing in her ear may be growing too loud to ignore. The Bush administration began advising Indonesia just days after the 9-11 attacks that Qaeda operatives were linking up with radical Islamic groups in the region. In the past month the United States stepped up its warnings, citing “compelling information on the presence of Al Qaeda in Indonesia,” according to a senior U.S. official. About one week before the blasts in Bali, the American ambassador to Indonesia, Ralph Boyce, threatened to empty the U.S. Embassy if Megawati did not vigorously investigate a botched grenade explosion that occurred outside one of its residences on Sept. 23. The investigation is still ongoing (300 nonessential American Embassy staff left Indonesia after the Bali attack). But U.S. officials remain frustrated with local law enforcement. “We have the right to expect some action in the coming days,” says Boyce.
Washington isn’t alone in its frustration: Megawati has also ignored warnings from her own people. Muchyar Yara, spokesman for Indonesia’s State Intelligence Agency, acknowledged to NEWSWEEK that his agency learned last year that two senior associates of Osama bin Laden, Ayman Zawahiri and Mohammed Atef, had visited a terrorist training camp on the Indonesian island of Sulawesi in 2000. “We gave a warning to the government,” Yara said, but nothing was done.
So what explains Megawati’s continued inaction? Senior aides rationalize it by saying that information on Indonesia’s terrorist threat so far has not been cut and dried. “She listened seriously, but how can she take a decision when her heads of police and state intelligence have 180-degree different opinions?” says Arifin Panigoro, one of her senior political advisers. Many think her failure to act has more to do with Megawati’s fear of radical Islamist groups than with conflicting intelligence reports. Some of her own officials have stated that a crackdown on radical groups would spark a massive uprising in the world’s largest Muslim nation. Moderate Muslim leaders dismiss the threat, saying Megawati is wracked by fear and paranoia. “She alone is worried about a possible backlash,” says Azyumardi Azra, rector of the State Islamic University in Jakarta. “The vast majority of Indonesians are moderate, and moderate Muslim leaders don’t like the fact that Islam is being hijacked by the radicals.”
Chief among those is Abu Bakar Bashir, who almost overnight has gone from an unknown rector at a central Java boarding school to the poster child of radical Islam. Singapore and Malaysia have accused Bashir of being the leader of Jemaah Islamiah, a regional terrorist group thought to be affiliated with Al Qaeda whose goals include creating a Pan-Islamic state composed of Malaysia, Indonesia and the southern Philippines. The accusations against Bashir were buoyed last month by a leaked confession from alleged terrorist Omar al-Faruq, a 31-year-old Kuwaiti who is now in U.S. custody. Al-Faruq, reportedly Al Qaeda’s point man in Southeast Asia, told U.S. officials that he and Bashir planned to bomb American embassies in the region.
Bashir, however, vehemently denies any links to Jemaah Islamiah or terrorism. U.S. officials admit they have no evidence against him aside from al-Faruq’s accusations. Bashir failed to show up for questioning in Jakarta after fainting at a press conference last week. Authorities have now placed him under arrest in his hospital in Solo and may question him in the next several days. But it’s unclear if anything will come of it. Yara, of the State Intelligence Agency, says, “We must have evidence–hard evidence.”
Meanwhile, the Jakarta is eager to show it’s actively pursuing the Bali investigation. NEWSWEEK has learned that Indonesian intelligence officials are focusing their efforts on tracking an Indonesian explosives expert–dubbed “the inspector”–whom they believe made a final check on the bombs before their delivery and detonation. Indonesian Defense Minister Matori Abdul Djalil told NEWSWEEK that they are focusing on a specific terrorist cell, but declined to comment further. Intelligence sources say the suspected cell includes Indonesians as well as foreign nationals from Kuwait and Malaysia. Some cell members may have undergone terrorist training in Afghanistan, and the group may be linked to both Al Qaeda and Jemaah Islamiah. “I can say there is cooperation between Al Qaeda and an internal network,” says Matori.
Megawati may soon have no excuse not to act. On Friday her cabinet issued two emergency decrees to free the hands of her police and intelligence agencies until an antiterrorism bill is passed by Parliament. The police will now be able to arrest suspected terrorists without evidence, as long as they are implicated by intelligence information. So now the only question is whether she’ll put her new powers to use. Panigoro, her political adviser, says Megawati recently told him, “My father was more firm [with radical Muslims] because he had widespread support.” Aides are now urging her to overcome her hesitation and start forging alliances with moderate Muslim groups to create a united front against the country’s terrorist threat. Even members of her own party say that if she doesn’t move against radical Islamic groups she will not be re-elected in 2004. Of course, that would leave more time for her garden.
