Handicapping a NASCAR race involves flowing with the changes. Each Sunday night the week before an upcoming race, I start to break down every driver’s tendency at a particular track. Then, there is consideration for current form and recent performances on similar tracks. By the time Tuesday and Wednesday roll around, the information gained via press releases, such as chassis selections, is used to enhance or downgrade a driver rating for the upcoming race. When Friday arrives, we get to see the qualifying times, but the most important and final ingredient for a driver’s rating is how he or she fares on longer runs in Saturday’s final practice.
I’ve undertaken this process every week for more than two decades, first when creating odds for the sports books I worked at, and now as I’m making wagers on the other side of the counter.
But much of this process is thrown out the window when analyzing the four restrictor-plate races each season between Daytona and Talladega. Anyone can win a plate race, anyone can get caught up in a wreck and practices mean very little. Ratings are more meaningful at tracks like Richmond or Kansas, so a diligent handicapper’s chances are better when wagering on races at tracks such as these. Plate races are volatile crap shoots, and the cream doesn’t always rise to the top.
Sprint Unlimited odds: Dale Earnhardt Jr. shares co-favorite status
The best advice for wagering on the Daytona 500 is to drop your normal bankroll to about half of what you invest in a non-plate race. Then, use about 60 percent of that amount on odds to win with five or six drivers, with heavier bets on those with shorter odds. At the other tracks, that ratio should shift dramatically to only 25 percent of your bankroll on odds to win, with the other 75 percent on driver matchups.
But the Daytona 500 is the Super Bowl of NASCAR, so there’s nothing wrong with getting a little excited about all these wonderful props and overspending a bit. So, let’s take a look at all of them, and I’ll share advice where I have it. Also, remember before wagering, there are a couple key components not factored into these props – i.e., how the cars run during Saturday’s Sprint Unlimited and next Thursday’s Budweiser Duel races. It’s probably the second-most important component of a Daytona 500 driver rating, after recent plate race history.
DAYTONA 500 MATCHUPS, SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 22, 2015 DALE EARNHARDT JR -120 KEVIN HARVICK +100The Linemakers’ lean: Let’s go with Junior here, as Harvick wasn’t so spectacular in plate races last season. In addition, Junior is statistically the most consistent driver at Daytona.
DALE EARNHARDT JR -120 BRAD KESELOWSKI +100No lean: Keselowski is a good candidate to win, so no thanks here against another top candidate.
KEVIN HARVICK -110 BRAD KESELOWSKI -110The Linemakers’ lean: Keselowski has yet to win at Daytona, but he’s proven his worth at Talladega with three wins. He had a career-best third-place finish at the 2014 Daytona 500.
JIMMIE JOHNSON -110 MATT KENSETH -110The Linemakers’ lean: Kenseth is the play, as Johnson is either really good at Daytona or really bad. JJ swept the 2013 season, but since 2010, he’s also had finishes of 35th, 31st, 27th, 42nd, 36th and 42nd.
JIMMIE JOHNSON -110 DENNY HAMLIN -110The Linemakers’ lean: Hamlin gets the nod, again because of JJ’s volatile Daytona record, as well as Hamlin being at the top in plate races last season.
MATT KENSETH -110 DENNY HAMLIN -110The Linemakers’ lean: JGR power in both cars, but a slight edge to Hamlin.
JEFF GORDON -120 JOEY LOGANO +100The Linemakers’ lean: How can you not bet on Gordon in possibly his final Daytona 500? It gets easier when considering Logano didn’t have a top-10 in plates last season.
JEFF GORDON -120 CARL EDWARDS +100No lean: This is a good matchup and it wouldn’t surprise if Edwards hits it off immediately with JGR power, similar to Kenseth in 2013. Harvick won the title with a new team in 2014.
JOEY LOGANO -110 CARL EDWARDS -110The Linemakers’ lean: Edwards has been knocking on the door of a plate win for a long time. He’s very good in plate races despite having never won one.
KYLE BUSCH -130 JAMIE McMURRAY +110No lean: McMurray with plus-money looks attractive, but JGR respect prevents this bet. ADDITIONAL MATCHUPS KYLE BUSCH -130 KURT BUSCH +110 JAMIE McMURRAY -110 KURT BUSCH -110 TONY STEWART -110 CLINT BOWYER -110No lean: Who knows what to make of this one? Is Stewart back? Can we pick on him? Bowyer is a very accomplished plate racer with a 15.9 average finish at Daytona.
TONY STEWART -120 KYLE LARSON +100No lean: It’s debatable who was worse at Daytona last year. Larson finished 38th and 36th, and Stewart was 35th and 40th. But Stewart has four Daytona wins – all in the summer.
CLINT BOWYER -120 KYLE LARSON +100
KASEY KAHNE -120 GREG BIFFLE +100The Linemakers’ lean: Biffle is the call here, as Kahne’s last four finishes at Daytona were 36th, 32nd, 31st and 27th. RYAN NEWMAN -110 RYAN BLANEY -110 RYAN NEWMAN -110 PAUL MENARD -110 MARTIN TRUEX JR -110 ARIC ALMIROLA -110 AUSTIN DILLON +100 GREG BIFFLE -120No lean: This is an even matchup. Dillon should run well just like he did last season when he finished ninth and fifth at Daytona as a rookie. DAYTONA 500 FINISH POSITIONS
FINISH BY: DALE EARNHARDT JR OVER 11.5 -110 UNDER 11.5 -110
FINISH BY: JIMMIE JOHNSON OVER 12.5 -110 UNDER 12.5 -110The Linemakers’ lean: OVERFINISH BY: JEFF GORDON OVER 12.5 -110 UNDER 12.5 -110
FINISH BY: KEVIN HARVICK OVER 12.5 -110 UNDER 12.5 -110FINISH BY: BRAD KESELOWSKI OVER 12.5 -110 UNDER 12.5 -110The Linemakers’ lean : UNDERFINISH BY: JOEY LOGANO OVER 12.5 -110 UNDER 12.5 -110The Linemakers’ lean: OVERFINISH BY: KYLE BUSCH OVER 12.5 -110 UNDER 12.5 -110
FINISH BY: MATT KENSETH OVER 12.5 -110 UNDER 12.5 -110FINISH BY: CARL EDWARDS OVER 12.5 -110 UNDER 12.5 -110The Linemakers’ lean: UNDER
FINISH BY: KYLE LARSON OVER 15.5 -110 UNDER 15.5 -110
FINISH BY: DANICA PATRICK OVER 20.5 -110 UNDER 20.5 -110
Hey, where is Denny Hamlin at? Lets go UNDER 12.5 on Hamlin as well.DAYTONA 500 RACE PROPOSITIONS
WINNING CAR NUMBER WILL BE: 1-19 -140 (This is the preferred side with Keselowski and three of the JGR cars) 20-98 +120WINNING CAR NUMBER WILL BE: ODD +260 (You get Hamlin, Edwards, Bowyer, Kurt Busch, Menard, Dillon, and Larson) EVEN -310 (you get just about everyone else that is good)
TOTAL CAUTIONS: OVER 7.5 -110 UNDER 7.5 -110 (There were 7 cautions last year)**(At least 200 laps must be completed for action) WINNING MANUFACTURER: CHEVY -140 (23 wins all-time, including last two) FORD +500 (13 wins all-time, including three of the past six) TOYOTA +180 (Looking for first win)DAYTONA 500 GROUP MATCHUPS GROUP 1 DALE EARNHARDT JR +215 DENNY HAMLIN +235 JIMMIE JOHNSON +235 KEVIN HARVICK +235GROUP 2 MATT KENSETH +230 BRAD KESELOWSKI +225 JEFF GORDON +230 JOEY LOGANO +235
GROUP 3 CARL EDWARDS +220 KYLE BUSCH +220 JAMIE McMURRAY +240 CLINT BOWYER +240GROUP 4 TONY STEWART +225 KURT BUSCH +225 KASEY KAHNE +235 KYLE LARSON +235GROUP 5 GREG BIFFLE +225 AUSTIN DILLON +225 RYAN NEWMAN +235 RYAN BLANEY +235GROUP 6 PAUL MENARD +225 RICKY STENHOUSE JR +225 MARTIN TRUEX JR +235 ARIC ALMIROLA +235GROUP 7 MICHAEL WALTRIP +215 DANICA PATRICK +215 TREVOR BAYNE +245 SAM HORNISH JR +245GROUP 8 AJ ALLMENDINGER +220 CASEY MEARS +220 DAVID RAGAN +230 JUSTIN ALLGAIER +250GROUP BETTING RULES **All drivers in group must start for action; Best Finish in Group Wins; Parlays allowed in Groups 1 thru 8
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