Line: Providence -3, Total: 131.5 (current NCAA Tournament spreads and totals)
Dayton Record: 26-7 ATS: 16-15 OVER/UNDER: 14-12-1 Overview: The Flyers improved to 17-0 at home this season with a First Four win against Boise State to force this matchup, but away from home, they’re 5-7 straight up and 4-8 ATS. They did some damage in last year’s Big Dance, winning as underdogs vs. Ohio State, Syracuse and Stanford, before bowing out to Florida in the Elite Eight (although they covered +10.5 in the 62-52 loss to the Gators).
Team page: Dayton
Providence Record: 21-11 ATS: 16-10-3 OVER/UNDER: 16-10 Overview: The Friars cashed in four of their last five games, including a near-miss straight-up win vs. Villanova as 8.5-point dogs in the Big East semis. They usually get the job done as favorites with a 9-5-2 ATS record in the role. After closing the regular season with eight of 10 games going OVER, they’re on a three-game UNDER run. They lost o North Carolina 79-77 in the opening round of last year’s Tournament but got the money as 4.5-point dogs.
Team page: Providence
Handicapping tools: Matchup analysis | Power ratings | ATS standings
The Linemakers’ lean: These teams both play at a fairly slow pace, Providence ranking 129th in possessions per game, Dayton 245th. We’ll go UNDER the total here.
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