It better be. Ukraine is a series of catastrophes waiting to happen. Habitual distrust between Kiev and Moscow is half the volatile mix. Hyperinflation has turned Ukraine, once the Soviet Union’s breadbasket, into an economic basket case. Ever more hard-line nationalists could destabilize the country further. That’s why Clinton is eager to rid the country of its 176 long-range missiles and 1,800 warheads–all pointed at the United States–and to offer $155 million or more in financial aid. From its uranium reprocessed in Russia, Ukraine would eventually get $1 billion worth of fuel rods for its nuclear-energy program.
Every dollar helps. Thanks to the doubling of prices every four weeks, the average monthly salary in Ukraine buys approximately one winter boot. State shops are virtually empty; in the countryside, barter has become the currency of exchange. There are no signs of improvement: Kravchuk, a former communist who embraced nationalism to become president after Ukraine’s independence two years ago, has no economic-reform plan. That failure has left him with so little political capital that he reaped only slim dividends from Clinton’s visit. “Frankly, the Ukrainian president looked miserable, very provincial,” says pro-reform deputy Serhiy Holovaty, “like a little boy demonstrating obedience to his uncle.”
Ukrainians seem more paranoid than ever about Russia’s motives–particularly since the election victory of ultranationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who wants to re-create a Russian empire. Ukraine itself is deeply divided between the passionately anti-Russian west and the more industrialized east, where many people long to be economically reintegrated with Russia. This week’s presidential election in the Crimea, the Black Sea Ukrainian enclave claimed by Russian nationalists, may fan those tensions. Most of the candidates are pro-Russian. If the peninsula eventually declares itself part of Russia, fighting could break out. Failure to ratify the nuclear treaty will likely bring a cutoff of oil and gas from Moscow and calls for reprisal from Russian nationalists–trouble that Ukraine doesn’t need.
