Based on FanDuel prices for the Patriots, Broncos, Cardinals and Panthers, here’s who we like and don’t like for Sunday’s conference championship games.
MORE: Full player rankings | FanDuel tourney lineup | Cash-game lineup
Stud: Cam Newton, Panthers ($8,500). Game flow wasn’t in Newton’s favor last week. The Panthers got a big lead early with their traditional running game and defense, and didn’t need much from Cam against the Seahawks. They should need him a lot more as a passer and runner in what could end up being more of a back-and-forth, high-scoring game against Arizona. He’s got the highest QB price this week, and many should want to pay up for his dual threat.
Sleeper: Carson Palmer, Cardinals ($7,700). If you don’t want to spend on Newton or Tom Brady, Palmer would save you some nice cash to float into other positions. Palmer had an off game last week, and still dropped 349 yards and three TDs on the Packers, thanks to big-time help as usual from his awesome wide receivers.
Bust: Peyton Manning, Broncos ($6,700). Given he’s thrown only one TD at home this season and came up empty again last week in a decent matchup against Pittsburgh, it’s hard to trust Peyton even in tournament lineups.
Stud: David Johnson, Cardinals ($8,000). Johnson was a disappointment last week overall, but salvaged some value by being busy as a receiver and just missed connecting with Palmer on a TD. Arizona should want to keep him a big part of the passing game, and although Carolina is stout against the run, he should provide a chunk play or two from scrimmage. He’s the guy you can trust most for 100 yards and a TD from a very shallow RB pool.
Sleeper: C.J. Anderson, Broncos ($6,300) . Anderson ran in the game-winner against the Patriots in the first meeting. His running style and burst are pretty well-suited to see their committee’s biggest workload in the rematch. Just like last season, as the weather has gotten colder, he’s been the hotter hand.
Bust: Ronnie Hillman, Broncos ($5,700) . See what we said about Anderson above. A better low-budget guy would be anyone on the Patriots.
Stud: Julian Edelman, Patriots ($7,800) . Edelman is back from his foot injury, and looking like usual quick, elusive self. Brady should be throwing several more quick darts to him to beat Denver’s pass rush. The Broncos do have someone who can cover the slot well in Chris Harris Jr., but he will be playing with a shoulder injury. Besides, thanks to Rob Gronkowski, New England will always find a way to get Edelman open.
Sleeper: John Brown, Cardinals ($6,500). Given how cheap he is again and the upside, he should be heavily owned. It’s a good bet that Michael Floyd will be the one drawing Josh Norman’s coverage the most, and then the Panthers will do their best to try to contain Larry Fitzgerald, who will work mostly out of the slot again. Brown should draw some favorable one-on-ones then, against either Robert McClain or Kurt Coleman.
Bust: Demaryius Thomas, Broncos ($7,600). Floyd would also fit this category, but Thomas just costs more. The Patriots did a nice job of taking him away in the first meeting, and it’s hard to think you’ll get what you pay for here after his disappointing numbers against the Steelers. Peyton weighs a lot on not making this decision.
Stud: Greg Olsen, Panthers ($7,000). If you want to pony up for Gronk, that’s fine, but it would just hurt you so much at other positions. This week, Gronk and Olsen’s production should be much closer, something in the neighborhood of 6-for-80 and a TD.
Sleeper: Owen Daniels, Broncos ($4,900). There’s not much on the table to tab for this category, so we’ll go with OD, who dropped 6-for-48 in the first meeting against the Patriots. There should be plenty of Peyton dinking and dunking, and Daniels also has an outside shot to score on a short pop.
Bust: Darren Fells, Cardinals ($4,700). There isn’t much else from which to choose here, so we’ll fade Fells just in case you were thinking of going this cheap.
Stud: Panthers vs. ARI ($5,100). Palmer was a little shaky under pressure and coughed up the ball a few times last weekend to make Green Bay’s defense have value last week. Carolina really got revved by the home crowd against Seattle, and should be hungry for more tone-setting big plays.
Sleeper: Patriots at DEN ($4,700). This one’s for Peyton. They’re the cheapest on the board, and could easily end up scoring the most. Mulitple sacks and at least one big takeaway should be in the mix.
Bust: Broncos vs. NE ($4,800). They’re darn good, but even they couldn’t get much done against Brady the first time even when he didn’t have all of his weapons. Just stay away here.