The Fantasy Black Book’s Relative Position Value system will be crucial to determining which inflated players are still worth your attention and which talented slow-starters are screaming out to be rostered. As I mentioned last week, we must still utilize a combination of last year’s average fantasy points and current projections when evaluating pitching value because there simply isn’t a large enough sample size for 2016 to create a worthy analysis.
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Wednesday night’s pitching slate is very tricky. There are plenty of land mines and only two real “aces.” What Relative Position Value per Dollar (RPVPD) is going to show us is the potential danger of dropping down to the second tier in terms of value and production efficiency. Not often, but some nights it actually pays to go deeper into the pitcher pool and take some risk. Wednesday is one of those nights.
Daily fantasy baseball strategy: Pitcher values
Here is Fantasy Alarm’s RPVPD board using DraftKings scoring and salaries (turn mobile device horizontally for best viewing experience):
If you ever wonder when to “fade” the top of the pitching board, the answer is, when the value per dollar doesn’t present itself. Ironically, most daily players would spot Carlos Rodon and Drew Smyly as viable options. Now, they are both strong arms worthy of attention. The trouble is, they’re simply not creating a large enough salary efficiency advantage over the competition. Even Stephen Strasburg and Carlos Carrasco are barely above the positive RPVPD line making them decent, but not great, plays. Are they both outstanding pitchers? Of course! However, when you compare their production efficiency to the rest of the board they’re both a tough sell – especially in tournaments. Their cash-game floor is still very worthy of attention and ownership.
MORE DFS: Wednesday’s SP rankings | Hitter picks | MLB Playbook
Last year, Ubaldo Jimenez was the most cost effective starting pitcher over the first three months of the season. Basically, not even the DFS site algorithms believed in him. When MATH throws shade at you, it’s safe to say you are fighting an uphill battle of respectability. But you can’t ignore how hot the Orioles are and Jimenez once again looks strong out of the gate.
J.A. Happ and Shane Greene are sneaky values tonight, as is Alfredo Simon, who just seems to fit in Cincinnati. A few years ago, Simon was a steady value arm until getting dealt to Detroit. You have to ignore Peavy’s value because it’s based on the fact that his salary is adjusted for Coors Field. The strongest paring of arms will probably look like a combination of Carrasco/Strasburg as an SP1 (I lean towards Strasburg’s matchup versus ATL) and either Jimenez/Happ at the SP2 slot in terms of maximizing value.
Daily fantasy baseball strategy: Hitter values
The shortstop position has been much maligned this offseason and with good reason. However, it appears (at least right now) there are some hitters riding quite the wave of productivity. At this position, we’ll use the DraftKings FPPG (Fantasy Points Per game) averages in our equation of RPVPD not because the sample size is definitive, but because it’s large enough to illustrate players riding hot and cold streaks. In baseball, understanding and exploiting these streaks is paramount to success.
Here’s our RPVPD board for Wednesday at shortstop on DraftKings:
As lights-out as Trevor Story has been, Eugenio Suarez and Jean Segura are streaking past him in terms of RPVPD value. With a savings of $1.5K or more, it’s hard to justify paying up for Story (even in Colorado) or even the great Carlos Correa tonight. Like the pitching analysis in the previous section, we see yet again the “slight” fading to the second tier (Xander Bogaerts/Brandon Crawford) is a dangerous proposition.
MORE FANTASY: Waiver wire pickups | Top prospect rankings
If you’re going to save budget, you have to go further down the trough to maximize your value. Even Addison Russell is a very viable option. It’s amusing to see Troy Tulowitzki pulling up the caboose. For the owner thinking maybe he breaks out, this should put a cease and desist order on that notion. His negative RPVPD is so extreme considering his cost and competition, you should have your head examined for even considering such a notion.
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Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is the seven-time best-selling author of the Fantasy Black Book Series for baseball and football. He hosts Fantasy Sports Tonight on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio and the Dear Mr. Fantasy Podcast.
